How Many Died in the Rwandan Genocide?

This is not clear and it will be a major point of contention for quite some time. Although the 800,000 figure has been popularly agreed upon, this is not at all straightforward.

According to the sources that we consulted, there are several totals that were put forward. The data compiled from the Ministry of Local Affairs within the Rwandan government suggests that roughly 900,000 people died in the spring of 1994. Similarly, the mass grave identification project undertaken by the Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport estimates that roughly 800,000 people were killed. Human Rights Watch estimates that there were 500,000 victims but our coding of their material only accounted for 47,121. Events were not considered if they were not affixed to either space or time. African Rights provides no estimates. As they state,

From this source we identify 133,144 deaths.

The distribution across sources is important. The different government ministries are consistently higher than the other sources but they are not identical. The two are generally close to one another in Kigali-Rural, Kibungo, Butare and Kibuye – the sites of some of the largest massacres. The sources differ however on the other locations: Gitarama, Gikongoro, Ruhengeri, Gisenyi and Cyangugu – all regions in the western part of the country, suggesting one form of systematic bias.

The position of African Rights is understandable. This organization was interested in “telling the truth”, but they seemingly lacked the resources to do so. Consequently, the number identified is quite low. Additionally, not providing an estimate is comprehensible as well. At the time of the data collection effort, the regime was still authoritarian in nature and joining the conflict over the body count might have interfered with their access to the country. Although generally lower than either of the ministries, African Rights is found to exceed the values of Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport in two provinces: Gikongoro (which is actually quite close) and Cyangugu (which is much higher). The latter is the most distant province from the capitol (near the Burundian border) and it identifies what may have been the last area to be engulfed by genocide. Interestingly, between African Rights and the two ministries, this is the location where the estimates are third closest to one another, following Kigali-ville (the area surrounding Kigali) and Kibuye (discussed earlier).

The estimates for Human Rights Watch are consistently lower than the others. Two explanations exist for this. One, their access to the country was limited; or, alternatively, their research simply identified a lower figure. Human Rights Watch estimated that 500,000 died in the genocide, but this estimate comes not from the organizations data, but from estimates made by a demographic consultant. Referring to this report, it is clear that the 500,000 figure is a rough estimate, at best. From Human Right Watch’s data we do know that Human Rights Watch sampled a small proportion of the actually number of stories of killings. From the record, we do not know what means this organization used to select those interviewed. If we assume that Human Rights Watch used a snowball sample technique, then it is likely the sample used to tell the genocide’s story suffers from potentially severe bias.

How Many Survived the Rwandan Genocide?

The answer to this question is also contested and this will continue to be a major point of interest. Understanding the importance of this figure is crucial. If we assume a Tutsi population of 600,000 (based on the 1992 census), then we can begin to estimate the number of Tutsi and Hutu victims. The other key figure, for which there are few estimates, are the number of surviving Tutsi. Gerard Prunier in one study estimates that there were 130,000 survivors. Human Rights Watch estimates 150,000. Ibuka (a survivors organization in Rwanda) claims 300,000 survived, with roughly 50,000 perishing form natural causes over the subsequent 8 years. These distinctions matter a great deal.

If we accept the Ibuka figures and the data from the Rwandan government, then roughly 300,000 Tutsi died along with 600,000 Hutu. If this were the case, then the event could more appropriately be labeled a politicide (where political opponents are attacked) and not a genocide (where an ethnic group is attacked). There is also a large amount of evidence provided within the testimonial records that we obtained from the International Criminal Tribunal of Rwanda in Arusha, Tanzania that identifies that identifying ethnic groups during the period of violence was no straightforward manner. Indeed, it appears that the perpetrators preferred to err on the side of comprehensiveness, killing all of those suspected of being an enemy of the state. Alternatively, one could conceptualize the event as a genocide of the Tutsi, followed by a large-scale massacre of Hutu in retaliation.
We do not know who the perpetrators of the majority of Hutu deaths were. Clearly many Hutu died in the early spring and summer, victims of the Hutu Power movement who planned to slaughter of Tutsi as well (which we are documenting rather consistently). What we do not know, is whether the proportion of Hutu victims was low during the initial phases of the mass killings, which would be consistent with the charge of genocide, or if the killings took place simultaneously, which would be consistent with a more general, but equally horrific, politicide. It is also possible that the Hutu deaths followed the Tutsi deaths, and as such would then represent a continued escalation of violence and counter violence that characterizes much of Rwandan and Burundian politics of the past 50 years. We are still collecting data on this.

Of course, it is not only important what the total figure was but also the distribution across space. For this, we have examined our data across each commune within Rwanda by the source as well as across time.
In figure 2, we demonstrate graphically, based on the most recent government census, the geographic distribution of the killings. As is apparent in the map, the killings, while distributed throughout the country (including areas the RPF is reported to have controlled before the genocide began), in these data the killings are concentrated in 4 principle locations, supporting the contentions that intervention could have saved a large proportion of the lives lost (if properly timed and adequately armed).

Figure 2. Map of killings by Commune.

In Table 1, which details the various sources of data in our study, we find that the greatest distribution of killings/victims exists within the Ministry of Local Affairs report. Here, seemingly every location was involved, with Butare mounting the largest number of victims followed by Gitarama, Kigali and Gikongoro. This would have complicated efforts at intervention and simultaneously will create problems for reconciliation efforts as varying circumstancs will require additional attention.

When we consider the Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sport, however, we find that Butare is again the location with the largest amount of killing. This is followed by Kigali (again) and Kibuye. Beyond these prefectures, there is a fairly uneven distribution across the various geographic locales. This variation would have made efforts at intervention difficult but the similarity will make reconciliation efforts more feasible as they could be more uniform in nature.

In contrast, African Rights reveals that Kibuye had the largest number of killings with five provinces tied for second: Cyangugu, Gikongoro, Gitarama, Kigali and Kibungo. This suggests that intervention might have been facilitated had it targeted a few locations but, at the same time, it reveals that the remaining locations might have been harder to contain. This also suggests that reconciliation efforts should be distinctly targeted to reflect the variation in popular participation.

Again, differing from the others, Human Rights Watch reveals that Butare had the largest number of killings with Gikongoro and Kibuye closely behind. The remaining values are low and fairly evenly distributed. Such a pattern also would lead one to suggest that intervention was feasible and would lead one to view reconciliation favorably.

Click here to view table.

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How many died?

According to Gérard Prunier, "Because of the chaotic nature of the genocide, the total number of people killed has never been systematically assessed, but most experts believe the total was around 800,000 people. This includes about 750,000 Tutsis and approximately 50,000 politically moderate Hutus who did not support the genocide. ... Only about 130,000 Tutsis survived the massacres." Some, though, have taken issue with Prunier's (and others') estimates, alleging that the number of Tutsis in Rwanda was lower at the outbreak of the genocide than is generally believed. By these measures, "an estimated 500,000 Rwandan Tutsi were killed, or more than three-quarters of their population. ... The number of Hutu killed during the genocide and civil war is even less certain, with estimates ranging from 10,000 to well over 100,000." (Alan J. Kuperman, "Genocide in Rwanda and the Limits of Humanitarian Military Intervention," unpublished paper, 2000; see also Kuperman, "Rwanda in Retrospect," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2000.)

In February 2002, the Rwandan government released the results of the first major census that sought to establish the number of people killed in the genocide and during its prelude period (1990-94). It found that 1,074,017 people -- approximately one-seventh of the total population -- were murdered, with Tutsis accounting for 94 percent of the victims. ("More Than One Million Rwandans Killed in 1990's," Associated Press dispatch, February 14, 2002.)

The proportion of males among those killed can only be guessed at, but was probably in the vicinity of 75 or 80 percent.