The consulting firm of Victory, Inc. has learned that you have taken a course in Congressional Elections at the University of Maryland and has engaged you to write a report in which you recommend a strategy for the five-term Representative Harvey Cliffhanger, a Democrat from the Fourth Congressional District of the state of Transylvania. Cliffhanger has to make a decision whether to seek an sixth term in the House of Representatives or to run for the Senate against the three-term Republican incumbent Frank N. Stein. You are to prepare this memorandum, of approximately 10 pages (typewritten and double-spaced), based upon the knowledge you have gained in this course. Victory, Inc. does not want a "game plan" gas to how to run a campaign. As a five-term veteran, Cliffhanger has plenty of knowledge on that score. Rather, the firm wants you to relate what broader knowledge you have gained in this course, drawing on the lectures and in particular on the reading. Indeed, your compensation for this assignment (reflected in your grade for the final examination) will bear a direct relationship to the way in which you integrate the course readings. There is no such thing as a satisfactory answer that does not dwell heavily on course readings. An essay that does not have substantial references to the course reading will receive a grade no higher than a C.

The report will be delivered either to the Government and Politics office (Tydings 3140) or to your professor's office (Tydings 2126E) no later than 12 noon, Monday, May 22, 1999. Absolutely no papers will be accepted after 12 noon on the dot without a certified illness or family emergency. DON'T EVEN THINK OF ASKING FOR AN EXTENSION--EVEN OF FIVE MINUTES FOR ANY OTHER REASON.

Every student must include the following statement on a separate page:

I have read and understand the University's policy on plagiarism and realize that the minimum penalty for submitting work that is not entirely my own is failure in the course. I certify that I have not committed plagiarism on this assignment.

Signed and dated,

(your signature) _________________________

REMEMBER THAT YOU MUST SIGN THE PLAGIARISM STATEMENT AND YOU MUST INCLUDE IT WHEN YOU SUBMIT THE EXAMINATION. ALSO, REMEMBER THAT YOUR SPELLING AND GRAMMAR WILL AFFECT YOUR GRADE. IF YOU DON’T HAVE THE PLAGIARISM STATEMENT, YOU WILL RECEIVE AN F FOR THE ASSIGNMENT. THERE WILL BE NO EXCEPTIONS.

The strategic situation is as follows: Cliffhanger has won victories against Republican opponents by modest margins in most of his seven election campaigns since he won a traditionally Republican seat in 1990. His average margin of victory has been 56.8 percent, but this masks considerable variations in his contests. His electoral history is as follows:

1990 53.0
1992 59.3
1994 51.1
1996        52.3
1998        68.5

Cliffhanger’s vote share increased in 1992 when Bill Clinton and the entire state Democratic party scored impressive victories in Transylvania. Voters punished George Bush and the Republicans for a depressed economy. But the anti-Clinton backlash of 1994 cost the states’s two ranking Democrats, Governor Paul Dracula and Senator Victor Fang, their seats and almost led to Cliffhanger’s defeat. He didn’t fare much better when Clinton carried his state two years later. But Cliffhanger came back strong in 1998 to defeat Republican activist Lois Blood by a wide margin. Blood is a small businesswoman who is a strong fiscal conservative but a social liberal who supports abortion and gay rights. In 1990 and 1994, State Senator Roger Wilco, one of the most vocal conservatives in the state legislature, ran against Cliffhanger –almost beating him in 1994. Wilco passed up the opportunity for a third try in 1996. Instead, he lost a close Republican primary for Governor.

To date only Blood has announced against Cliffhanger, but Republican leaders are trying to convince a reluctant Wilco to make a third stab at the seat. On the other hand, Democratic leaders worry that if Cliffhanger does not make the race, Wilco certainly will and the seat will change parties. With only five seats separating the Democrats and Republicans in the House, Democratic party leaders in the House have lobbied key members such as New Jersey moderate Robert Menendez, Minnesota conservative Bill Peterson, and even Vermont’s self-proclaimed socialist (elected as an Independent) Bernard Sanders to pass up Senate races to keep their House seats out of Republican hands. Democratic House leaders have promised these members plum assignments and there has even been rumors that Cliffhanger might be offered the position of Majority Whip if the Democrats retake the House (Whip David Bonior would move up to Majority Leader and Minority Leader Dick Gephardt would move up to Speaker). Yet, despite these entreaties, Cliffhanger believes that his 1998 opponent might be more formidable this time. Early polls give likely Republican nominee George W. Bush a 12 percent lead in Transylvania and Blood hopes to ride his coattails. Already, she is preparing for a more aggressive campaign by raising money early through her new fund-raising organization, the Blood Bank. Wilco’s organization from 1996 is still active and some pundits believe that if he saw 2000 as a good Republican year in Transylvania, he would get into the House race as preparation for another run for Governor in 2004.

Senator Stein has been a Washington fixture since 1982 and has won handily in two of his three races. In his first contest, he replaced a retiring Republican and carried 52 percent of the vote, even as the Democrats captured the state legislature for the first time since 1936. Six years later, as the Republicans swept the country and Transylvania, he took 65 percent of the vote, winning all but five of the state's 25 counties. In 1994 Stein captured 57 percent of the vote to win a third term. Stein appears to be well entrenched, but some people in the state do not think him to be invincible.

Stein will be tied up in Washington for much of 2000, working on cutting taxes and spending as Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Yet, Stein has taken considerable flack in Washington for his willingness to negotiate with Democrats. He was the only Senator from his party to vote for President Clinton’s budget in 1993 and was threatened with the loss of his position as Chair of the Appropriations Committee when he opposed the Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution in 1995. He voted against conviction of President Clinton, saying that the Senate trial "is an incredible waste of time when we have important legislative business to do." While he has voted against the administration 85% of the time, some party colleagues do not find him confrontational enough. He once called former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a "legislative terrorist." As a result, Stein will be challenged in the Republican primary. A well-known former astronaut, Harvey Wallbanger, served two terms as Governor from 1981 to 1989 and was Secretary of the Air Force from 1990 to 1993 before returning to the state as President of Modern Dynamics, a defense contractor that is the state's largest employer, has announced he intends to challenge Stein in the Republican primary. Wallbanger will run as a "real Republican," arguing that Stein too often votes with the Democrats in the Senate.

Cliffhanger worries that if he does not run for the Senate this year, he never will get the chance since the other Senate seat was captured in 1998 by his 38-year-old Democratic colleague, Martin Safe. He recognizes that the Senate race will be difficult compared to running for the House again--especially if there is another Republican tide in the nation (and in Transylvania).