GVPT 423

Notes since the midterm

During Presidential years candidates can “ride on the presidents’ coat-tails.” This refers to the extra votes candidates receive when they are in the party of the president or presidential candidate when he is popular. Without coat-tails, the president’s party normally wouldn’t get as many votes.

Off year elections (non-presidential years) are considered to be a “mid-term referendum” since there is no presidential election to serve as guidance for voting.

Majorities like we saw in the 1960’s are rare today…

1964- Johnson carried all but a handful, giving him the biggest landslide in history, and allowing the Democrats to take control of the House.

1972 and 1984 marked the demise of coattails. Reagan won by 6% in 1984.

Coat-tails have declined because seats have become less safe.

Surge and Decline for Presidents’ Parties

Most presidents are real popular when first elected. 2 years later they’re not as popular, so if the President is a Republican, a Democrat may have less reason to vote Republican at this point in time.

Almost half of people eligible to vote actually vote during Presidential election years.

Only 32% of those eligible vote during off-year elections, these are mainly the real partisans with deeper interests.

Strong partisans won’t defect so it’s the weaker partisans that create the effect of coat tails. These same creators of coat-tails drop out of voting two years later.

2 things lead to decline and absence of coattails:

No immediate attraction during off year elections without president on the ballot, turn out decreases.

Presidents are not as popular 2 years later, turnout also decreases.

Not until George W. Bush have we seen a president keep such high popularity for so long. The most important thing in an economy, historically, is the economy.

What Presidents can do to help themselves…

Political control of the economy

Pressure on the FED tie economic cycles to correspond with presidency.

Presidents are often judged by how well they run the economy.